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Promise and Delivery ๐Ÿšš - On union Budget 2018

Arun Jaitley’s Budget will be judged by whether it can bridge the gap If the Union Budget is construed as an annual tug-of-war between populism and fiscal prudence, arguably it is the latter that prevailed in the past four budgets tabled by the NDA. However, populism seems to have gained an upper hand in Arun Jaitley’s latest effort. Despite exceptional buoyancy in direct tax revenues (18.7% growth in FY18) and record disinvestment proceeds (₹1 lakh crore), shortfalls in GST mop-ups and dividend receipts have forced the Finance Minister to ease off on fiscal consolidation as mandated by the FRBM Act. The Budget has reported a fiscal deficit of 3.5% (of GDP) for FY18 and pegged it at a high 3.3% for next year. The Economic Survey prepared the ground for a deviation, yet the actual numbers surprised the markets. Armed with a war chest of ₹24.4 lakh crore in budgeted receipts for FY19, Mr. Jaitley has homed in unerringly on the root causes of distress — unrem...

Should India ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ have simultaneous Elections?

It will ensure consistency, continuity and governance, which are integral to democracy 🔷  YES | Bhupender Yadav Free and fair elections are integral to democracy. Continuity, consistency and governance are also integral to democracy. And democracy, to my mind, also implies good governance. To achieve this, elections are held. But if the means (elections) become the goal, this will not serve democracy well. Holding simultaneous elections will ensure consistency, continuity and governance, and elections then will only be the means to achieve this and not an end in themselves. Implementing simultaneous polls would require a substantial shift from the status quo and would involve amendments to the Constitution and election-related laws. However, does that mean we stop this much-needed reform? Certainly not. 🔹Strengthening democracy Earlier, tax collections were separate for the Centre and the States. We introduced the Goods and Services Tax Council through a c...

The Question of Credibility - the entire fiscal adjustment path has been reworked in this budget

There were considerable expectations from the Budget. Given that this is the last full-year Budget by this government and the first one after the revenue uncertainties arising from implementation of the goods and services tax (GST) reform, there were apprehensions about the slippages as well. Indeed, there are electoral budget cycles in every democratic polity and considering the dissatisfaction shown by rural electorate in the recent Gujarat elections, there were definite apprehensions about fiscal laxity. 🔹Focus areas The Finance Minister devoted a considerable part of his speech to elaborate the focus areas in the Budget. These include strengthening the agriculture and rural economy, provision of good healthcare for the poor, taking care of the senior citizens, creation of infrastructure, and working with the States to improve the quality of education. A careful analysis of the allocations to various sectors, however, does not show any significant departures from the p...

Good Bye to Fiscal Consolidation

The Narendra Modi government has taken pride in having restored the economy to the path of fiscal consolidation. The fiscal deficit target for 2017-18 had been set at 3.2% of GDP for 2017-18 and 3.0% for 2018-19. The Budget for 2018-19 puts paid to these objectives for now. The fiscal deficit for 2017-18 has ended up at 3.5%. For 2018-19, the government has set a target of 3.3%. The fiscal deficit target of 3% of GDP has now been pushed to 2020-21. 🔹Missed targets Revenue receipts in 2017-18 have grown faster than anticipated (although non-tax revenues have fallen short of target). We can compare the revised estimate for 2017-18 with the actual for 2016-17 and the Budget estimate for 2017-18 with the revised estimate for 2016-17. Tax revenues were higher than anticipated (15% compared to 13%). Capital receipts are expected to exceed the budgetary estimate thanks to record disinvestment revenues of ₹100,000 crore (₹27,500 crore higher than targeted). On the revenue...

Without LULA? On the challenge to Brazil ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ท politics

With a Porto Alegre court upholding Brazilian President Luiz Inรกcio Lula da Silva’s conviction in a corruption case, his chances of being allowed to contest the presidential elections in October have narrowed. Almost instantly, and perhaps in a sign of defiance, the left-leaning Workers’ Party (PT) announced its decision to field Mr. Lula. The developments echo divisions of the anti-corruption crusades that had engulfed Brazil’s business and political elites and millions of citizens owing allegiance to the architects of the generous welfare and inclusive growth policies of the previous decade. At the root of the ongoing crisis are the so-called Lava Jato, or Operation Car Wash, investigations into alleged kickbacks and political patronage involving the state-owned oil giant. The plea-bargaining provisions in Brazil’s anti-corruption law, which reduce jail terms for defendants in return for testimonies to prosecutors, set off a witch-hunt among the political...

Power of Single Identity - AADHAAR

Indian activists echo American conservatives of the 1930s, but Aadhaar is the best tool to administer the subsidy regime The United States enacted the landmark Social Security Act in 1935, giving birth to the Social Security Number (SSN). The debate leading up to the Act was highly contentious, as conservative Republicans/Congressmen declared, “Never in the history of the world has any measure been brought in here so insidiously designed as to prevent business recovery, to enslave workers, and … opens the door and invites the entrance into a political field of a power so vast, so powerful, as to threaten the integrity of our institutions....” Christian fundamentalists joined the crusade by proclaiming that SSN was the very Mark of the Beast prophesied in Revelation 13:17: “…no man might buy or sell, save he that had the mark, or the name of the beast, or the number of his name.” 🔷  Safety nets The fearmongering ultimately failed to imp...

For a Clean Judiciary

The process to remove Justice Shukla shows the importance of in-house mechanisms With an in-house committee concluding that a judge of the Allahabad High Court had committed judicial impropriety serious enough to warrant his removal, the subject of corruption in the higher judiciary is in the news. Justice Shri Narayan Shukla had come under adverse notice before a Supreme Court Bench headed by Chief Justice of India Dipak Misra last year. The Bench had found he had violated a restraining order from the apex court by allowing the GCRG Memorial Trust, Lucknow, to admit students. The Supreme Court observed that the Bench headed by Justice Shukla had violated judicial propriety. The CJI formed a three-member committee, comprising Chief Justices Indira Banerjee of the Madras High Court and S.K. Agnihotri of the Sikkim High Court and Justice P.K. Jaiswal of the Madhya Pradesh High Court, to examine his conduct. The committee has now found substance in the allegations and that the judge had ...

A year of Trump

The American President has confused everybody with his State of the Union speech In delivering his first State of the Union speech on Capitol Hill, President Donald Trump spoke of many small victories that he chalked up to his administration’s record over the past year. Yet the biggest surprise to many may have been the fact that they saw before them a Commander-in-Chief who unwaveringly stuck to the script and eschewed his usual provocative style on social media. While “Twitter Trump” has lashed out at Democrats on immigration reform and the federal government shutdown earlier in January, “Teleprompter Trump” issued a generous call for bipartisanship in policymaking. Where Mr. Trump has actively promoted, on social media, Russian involvement in resolving problems with North Korea, Syria, Ukraine and terrorism, he said in his Congressional address that Russia and China were rivals that challenged U.S. economic interests. Most strikingly, Mr. Trump assured ...