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Showing posts from January 27, 2018

ANOTHER WINDOW - RELATIONS BETWEEN THE KOREAS SPELLS HOPE FOR A WAYOUT OF THE NUCLEAR STANDOFF

Athletes from North and South Korea will march under a unified flag at the opening ceremony of the Winter Olympics when the 2018 edition gets under way in PyeongChang in February. In a breakthrough, both countries are even to field a joint women’s hockey team, a goal that has proved elusive in the past. But for all the symbolism and diplomatic show of unity, the games could yet draw closer the two peoples divided by the deadly conflict dating back many decades to the start of the Cold-War. 🔷  An opportunity The PyeongChang events have opened a fresh window for Moon Jae-in, South Korea’s President and a reputed human rights lawyer. Mr. Moon has prioritised regional stability no less than the country’s long-standing alliance with the U.S. Seoul and Washington have already decided to delay their annual joint military exercises, an act which Pyongyang sees as U.S. muscle-flexing, until after the Winter Olympics. The development falls into an emerging pattern of emphasising dialogue and

THE ASEAN EMBRACE

India can act as a vital bridge between South and East Asia Prime Minister Narendra Modi used India’s Republic Day to host heads of state/government of the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). As India’s ‘Look East Policy’, matures into an ‘Act East Policy’, a strong relationship with ASEAN is no longer a policy option; rather it is an economic and strategic necessity. 🔷  Economy, trade, investment While India-ASEAN trade value stood at $76.53 billion in 2014-15, China-ASEAN trade value reached $452.2 billion in 2016, almost six times than that of India. Similarly, Indian investments continue to remain marginal in the ASEAN region — it was around $224 million in 2015-2016 while Chinese investment over the same period totalled over $3 billion. However, Indian investments in ASEAN are likely to grow as there has been increased liberalisation and deregulation regarding outward foreign investments. The Tata Group already has a strong presence in Myanmar and

THE OIL RISK - ON THE RISE IN INTERNATIONAL PRICES

India needs to expedite steps that can help minimise the impact of higher oil prices As international oil prices head higher, India will have to brace itself for the economic risks of expensive energy. Brent crude oil futures were trading at about $70 a barrel on Friday, marking a four-year high and a price increase of close to 6% since the start of the year. The rise in international prices has been particularly sharp given that oil had been selling at below $45 in June. This is a rally of about 55% in a matter of just months. Oil price dynamics have often been explained by changes in the supply outlook influenced by the decisions of major oil producers. Oil trading at $70 should offer some respite to traditional oil producers like the OPEC members, which have suffered the onslaught of U.S. shale producers. According to the IMF, last year, for instance, Saudi Arabia would break even on its budget with oil at $70. The recent spurt in oil prices, however, seems to be more the result of

NATURAL PARTNERS IN THE ASIAN CENTURY

There is a need for a fresh perspective in India’s China policy As we complete two decades of the 21st century, a paradigm change in the global power structure is taking shape. Technology and size are causing this change. The physical size of a nation did not matter during the 19th and most of the 20th centuries. Britain, Germany, France and Japan leveraged their Industrial Revolution advantage on technology for armaments to become world powers despite their relatively small size. Europe thus became the global centre till the late 1950s. Now, potential power is shifting to the two large nations of the Asian mainland, China and India, which are nuclear weapons states and with fast-growing economies. Together they represent 60% of the Asian mainland. 🔷  Continental shift Asia already accounts for almost half of the world’s population, half of the world’s container traffic, one-third of its bulk cargo and 40% of the world’s off-shore oil reserves. It is home to several fast-growing ne

ASEAN RISING - ON RISING INDIA SOUTHEAST ASIA COOPERATION

India and Southeast Asia need to move beyond summitry to deeper integration As leaders of the 10 countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations gathered in New Delhi this week, India’s ties with ASEAN got a dose of both symbolism and substance. The ASEAN-India Commemorative Summit, followed by their attendance at the Republic Day parade as joint chief guests, underlined the new consensus on the need for Southeast Asia and India to boost cooperation. First, as the demand for goods in Western economies comes down, the region needs to look deeper within to grow markets and increase trade. Second, continuing tensions between the “great powers” — between the U.S. and Russia, or the U.S. and China — are forcing the unaligned countries of ASEAN and India to forge a common understanding. China’s moves in particular, both its naval forays in the Indo-Pacific and its Belt and Road Initiative connectivity project, have the potential to change equations in the region. Third, as Singapore